BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+7 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Russia. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a lot of money from this week contemplating it’s a smaller card and begins at 10:15am ET. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I will try to receive my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at the $25k decoration, then I will probably take a couple shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a great quantity of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I don’t believe there are really no cash locks nowadays, so I wanted to bring up a money strategy I use a great deal of the moment, which can be punting in money and accepting a reduction. I don’t believe Roxy gets the win , but she is just $6.9k and I believe she receives 15-minutes of actions. I like the floor that accompanies this and punting along with her cheap price enables us to fit in a lot of those higher favorites with our other five spots. We don’t need 6 wins in cash games, so that I do not think we need to try for it. I like playing money games safer and if I can lock 25-35 points at a loss from Roxy in her cheap price I’m totally okay with that. I always look for 4 wins in money and above 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal every week. Let everyone else make the errors and just shoot for a score that can conquer 50 percent or more of this field.
GPP drama of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in fight for GPPs in my opinion and I like Overeem as one of my best plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so that I would be shocked to see this go all 5 rounds. I also think Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is amounts before him at the game that is spectacular. The sole shot Oleinik has of winning on the toes would be by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing submission. Other than those two outcomes, Overeem will smoke on the toes. In addition, I believe Overeem can work his way back to his feet if he’s removed and the longer Oleinik shoots takedowns the quicker he will gas outside. I like the -175 ITD lineup that comes with Overeem here and I believe he gets a complete in around 1 or 2. That should provide us close to 100 DK points if not more, and I want that in lots of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog drama of the week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no longer the underdog on the gambling line (-120) but DraftKings salaries do not change once they are released. We get Fiziev here for $800 less costly than Mustafaev and he’s preferred to get the win. I was very impressed with what I saw out of this child and that I concur with all the line motion. I do think he has the win here, but it’s the DK worth that we want to be sure to get exposure to the weekend. I think he is a great play in cash games with the current value and I hope to be obese on him in GPPs as well. We must roster underdogs in our lineups and if we can use a favorite as one of those”underdogs” I am usually on board for that.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of the week for her $9.3k price tag. I really do think she has the win here as I mentioned earlier, I simply don’t see how she can pay off that wages with no finish. I really don’t see her shooting any takedowns in this game, and I don’t want to rely on her obtaining knockdown points either. Thus, we’re only going to be getting 0.5 points per significant strike, and the 30-point win bonus when she wins a decision. If this is the case, we’d need her to property over 126 sig strikes simply to secure more than 10x worth. I don’t see that being true and that I believe she more likely scores 80-85 DK points in a decision win. At her wages, that won’t win anybody the big $25k. That’s the prize I am shooting so that is why she’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 69-41 to get +237.39u (+$23,739) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)