Scoring is ablaze these NHL playoffs. It reached its summit May 3 with a ridiculous 6.09 goals per match and it’s now at 5.85 goals heading into Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final.
When you compare it with current postseasons, that number is ridiculous. It’s also a narrative that’s been largely overlooked by both the mainstream media and the betting community.
From the 10 seasons prior, the greatest goals per game average at a playoffs was 5.98 (2010) as well as that was an anomaly considering that it was the first period under new rule adjustments to crack down with a force on obstruction. The NHL predicted it tighter to start up play along with the OVER crushed this year at 45-30-14.
So I gotta hand it into oddsmakers because although scoring is way up this season, they’ve managed to reserve totals admirably. The O/U stands 32-36-11 heading into Game 1 between the Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights. That is really a gain of $200.25 if you put $100 on every UNDER. Just how should we be betting totals from the NHL closing?
I think we’ll see some UNDER value . The biggest reason is goaltending and that is always the first thing you need to look at when you’re betting totals in the NHL. If a team’s goalie isn’t playing well, pucks will find the back of the internet — it’s just an issue of the number of.
When a group’s goaltender is sexy, thoughhe can always slip an UNDER success for you by yourself.
Goaltenders:
Marc-Andre Fleury has propelled the Golden Knights to the closing and that is obvious with him sitting since the -120 favorite to win the Conn Smythe. If you need more than that, Fleury owns a 1.68 goals-against average and a .947 save percent.
That second number rankings best for a single postseason of any goalie who is played at least eight games. As in No. 1 all-time according to quanthockey.com. He is putting on a playoff performance for the ages here and you’ll be able to run out of superlatives to describe it.
Braden Holtby is a bit of a story for Washington. He has been up-and-down these playoffs with a couple softies squeezing through. He has had six games this postseason in which his save percentage plunged below .900, which is a little scary.
The fantastic news for Caps and UNDER bettors, though, is it appears he’s saved his best for the last. Holtby enters the closing off back-to-back shutouts from a powerful Tampa Bay squad with a joint 53 saves.
A big reason why is that Washington played much better team defense in front of him in these games. The Capitals had 36 blocked shots compared with the Bolts’ 21 and, to methey performed their best defensively of their postseason at the ends of the ice.
Holtby is a better goaltender once the Capitals are playing that. He is not always the kind of keeper who is likely to sneak goals off excellent scoring opportunities again and again like Fleury. But he’ll stop just about all the shots he needs to when his team is playing well in front of him.
The former fourth-round select has quietly made the third-best goals-against average in history (2.01) among goaltenders with at least 50 games.
Scoring in the Stanley Cup Final:
Scoring typically goes down in the closing. The team that could play better defense and possesses the hotter goaltender generally wins the Cup.
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