2019 Kentucky Derby: Late Saturday Odds, The Bets You Should Make, And How Tacitus Became a Favorite

The 2019 Kentucky Derby race day will be similar to the one hundred and forty-four that preceded it: Rain or shine, the afternoon breaks at Churchill Downs, the horses might require a simple turn round the trail, and the coaches and owners will begin to fidget and fuss in their losing battle to keep everything regular. The Derby is at base an unknowable race, what with its own huge and ungainly area, its barbarous rodeo-like split for the first flip, its length, its own unrelenting blare, and the untried youth of its own athletes. It is why America and the world have celebrated this great race for a century and a half. It is constructed for and functions as a rite of athletic passing.
Tacitus is on a brilliant training series and is coming on strong, both in the touts’ and the players’ hivemind, and looks to attract a chunk of their money that will drive down his price as the track opens. Nevertheless, the noble son of Tapit is, well, a son of Tapit, who, even though one of Bluegrass Kentucky’s leading sires, was not famous for his endurance back in the afternoon. Can Tacitus bring a mile-and-quarter run? Surely his trainer William Mott, and his jockey Jose Ortiz believe so. He even won the Wood Memorial at New York, that has been dumbed down to a Grade two in recent decades, yet this year’s Wood was as near an approximation to some rough-and-tumble Kentucky Derby begin as could be needed. Named for the great Roman historian and tough senator Tacitus, the horse lived up to his namesake and, after being bumped around in the early going, clocked the Wood Memorial win.
But before we call from the prestigious Bluegrass Wise Man ??? to help us assess Tacitus and his many daunting opponents, a refresher on the odds. Notice: as the track opens and the cash begins to talk, we will upgrade the odds all day, up until post time.
Post Position, Horse, Live Odds 1 War of Will, 16-1
2 Tax, 35-1
3 By My Standards, 18-1
YOU MAY ALSO LIKEBy definition, all Triple Crown horses are still maturing, some are even still growing. Not many have shown their skill at this space, which puts additional scrutiny on their pedigree. Some are extremely lightly raced, and a few have yet to succeed in any way, for instance, the supposedly speedy War Will, whose present trackside-chatter-based promise in training is overshadowed by what is thought to be his disastrous assignment to break from the rail.It’s Tacitus’ sort of grit that the winner of this 2019 Derby will desire, especially when needing to get through and by the current all-Baffert record of favorites in Game Winner, Roadster, and Improbable. No less a tout than Mike Battaglia, revered oddsmaker of Churchill Downs, is packed on Improbable, of all the Baffert favorites. What that may mean is that we’ve got a long day before usthat the path money has not yet spoken, and that Mr. Battaglia, while being cagey enough of a horseman to not say it , perceptions that Game Winner might not be the favored by post time.
Without further ado, the Bluegrass Wise Man.
What say we forget Bob for a moment and focus on Tacitus. Or, recall Bob, but provide us Tacitus like Bob were not around for this one.
Bluegrass Wise Man ???: Aside from the question all of these will have, that’s the sand, his query is going to be, can he get the excursion. Of all the sires on the market, Tapit is correct on top, and Tacitus’ momma was a Grade 1 winner, also, so it feels like he’ll. He has been training very well and everybody’s high on himso much so I do not think he is gonna stay at 10-1. He will go reduced by post time, and maybe even faster than that.
How do you find the race playing out?
Bluegrass Wise Man ???: War of Will is gonna hafta break real fast, and not mind the sand, to get to this turn . Not sure he’s gonna be in a position to do this. Bodexpress, who is assumed to be fast, might have to break even quicker from the nineteen hole. However that works out at, or in, the flip, I can see Maximum Security and Tacitus stalking the pace, and when I were Baffert, I would hope to see Roadster and Improbable up there in the mix. The conflict will be about the backstretch, and that is going to depend on a lot of factors, meaning, in which the rain is with us at that point. But if the trail is workable, and Game Winner along with another favorites don’t mind the sand, that can be a big if right now, they will jockey for position then bring their runs on top of the backstretch, or at the most recent, coming out of the next twist. That’s the stage at which, if you’re Bob, you’d like to see Improbable or even Roadster moving out front.
So, what’s our story here. Can this Derby about the next grade overtaking the favorites?
Bluegrass Wise Man ???: Each horse race is all about that. But in this particular one, the condition of the track is going to ascertain who likes it and who doesn’t. You need to remember about mud that horses can’t wash their faces as they run. If they feel that something hitting them in the face will impair their breathing — which they understand is their motor — some of these won’t enjoy it and they’ll slow down, or swerve their heads to shake with it. These options, for your horses, are gonna be more stark, and a ton more of a factor. So the openings will come, meaning, there can be some long shot back in there that is just going to love the slop and roll in and blow everybody’s thought of this race, and the money, and the board, to smithereens.